关于
Bill Miller is an American value investor and fund manager who achieved legendary status for his unprecedented 15-year streak of beating the S&P 500 from 1991 to 2005, a record that stands unmatched in mutual fund history.
Here's who he is:
Bill Miller was born in 1950 and began his career at Legg Mason in 1981, eventually becoming Chief Investment Officer and managing the Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust. His remarkable streak of outperforming the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years made him one of the most celebrated investors of his era. After the 2008 financial crisis, where his concentrated positions in financial stocks led to significant losses, Miller eventually founded Miller Value Partners (formerly Legg Mason Capital Management) and has since rebuilt his reputation with strong returns.
Miller is known for his unconventional approach to value investing, focusing on discounted cash flows and intrinsic value rather than traditional value metrics like low P/E ratios. Unlike traditional value investors who avoided technology, Miller famously invested in Amazon, AOL, and other technology companies when they were considered too risky for value portfolios. He combines deep fundamental analysis with a willingness to invest in misunderstood or out-of-favor businesses, often holding concentrated positions when he has high conviction. His philosophy emphasizes long-term business value over short-term market sentiment.
Beyond fund management, Miller has become respected for his intellectual approach to investing and his willingness to learn from mistakes. He is known for his thoughtful investor letters, which often reference philosophy, psychology, and behavioral economics. Miller has been candid about his failures during the 2008 crisis and has used those lessons to refine his investment approach, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in an industry where many never recover from major setbacks.
Bill Miller Best Quotes
-
"The most important thing in investing is to avoid big losses. The way to avoid big losses is to avoid the permanent impairment of capital."
-
"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre."
-
"You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time."
-
"The stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run, but the weighing machine is often broken."
-
"I think the most important attribute for success in value investing is patience. You need to be able to wait for the right pitch."
-
"The lower the price, the less the risk. The higher the price, the more the risk. That's just simple math."
-
"Markets are efficient in the long run, but they can be wildly inefficient in the short run. That's where the opportunities are."
-
"If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% or more in a year, you're not fit to be an investor."
-
"The goal is to find companies where the market price is significantly below intrinsic value and the gap is likely to close."
-
"Concentration builds wealth. Diversification protects wealth."
Written Works
Legg Mason Value Trust Quarterly Letters (1990s-2000s)
Miller's quarterly letters to shareholders of the Legg Mason Value Trust are considered masterpieces of investment writing and are studied in business schools worldwide. These letters provided detailed explanations of his investment philosophy, portfolio construction, and the reasoning behind specific stock selections. They often included discussions of market psychology, behavioral finance, and philosophical perspectives on risk and value. His letters from the 1990s explaining his rationale for investing in technology stocks like Amazon and Dell became legendary for their prescience and analytical depth.
Miller Value Partners Market Outlook Letters
Since founding Miller Value Partners, Miller has continued publishing quarterly market outlook letters that analyze macroeconomic trends, market valuations, and specific investment opportunities. These letters demonstrate his evolution as an investor, incorporating lessons learned from the 2008 crisis while maintaining his commitment to fundamental value principles. They feature candid discussions of portfolio performance, analysis of market dislocations, and insights into emerging investment themes including cryptocurrencies, where Miller became an early institutional advocate.
"The Santa Fe Institute Papers" and Academic Contributions
Miller has contributed numerous essays and papers exploring the intersection of complexity theory, market behavior, and investment strategy, drawing on his association with the Santa Fe Institute. His writings on market efficiency, the limitations of modern portfolio theory, and behavioral finance have influenced academic thinking about markets. These papers demonstrate his intellectual curiosity and willingness to challenge conventional wisdom in finance.
Amazon Investment Case Study and Technology Writings
Miller's detailed writings explaining his Amazon investment thesis in the late 1990s and early 2000s have become essential reading for understanding how to value disruptive technology companies. His analysis showed how traditional value metrics could be adapted for high-growth businesses by focusing on free cash flow potential and competitive advantages. These case studies demonstrated that value investing principles could be applied beyond traditional "cheap" stocks.
"Learning from Mistakes: Post-2008 Essays"
Following the financial crisis, Miller wrote extensively about the lessons learned from his significant losses in financial stocks. These candid reflections on what went wrong, how he failed to properly assess systemic risk, and how he rebuilt his investment process are rare in the investment industry. His willingness to transparently discuss failure and adaptation has made these writings valuable for both professional and individual investors seeking to understand risk management and psychological resilience.